The
phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to
predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty
What
have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry
Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters
con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?
This
book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our
lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge;
they''re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to
rationalize them.
''Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating
guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking
affection for him as a person'' Will Self, Independent on Sunday
''He leaps like some superhero of the mind'' Boyd Tonkin, Independent